Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
