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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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