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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd